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November 27, 2014

BDSI November 2014 - Considerable rise in take-home pay of formal employees

Press release: For immediate release

Date: 27 November 2014

Considerable rise in take-home pay of formal employees – BankservAfrica Index

Year-on-year, formal sector employees' salaries have increased by 5% more than inflation in October, clocking in at an astounding 11.2% more. This is according to the latest BankservAfrica Disposable Salary Index (BDSI)

“Once again, the theme of those in work being able to maintain increases in their lifestyle is borne out, as both private and public sector employees take home more after taxes, pensions, medical insurance as well as garnishee orders and firm-deducted micro loans,” explains Dr Caroline Belrose, Head of Fraud and Data Analytics at BankservAfrica.

The average real increase in take-home pay is 2.5% overall for the whole of the last 12 months, which is still significantly higher than inflation.

Salary trends 

According to the BDSI, the increases are lifting people out of the lower disposable salary bands, as the number of people earning less than R4 000 per month in disposable income has declined to less than 19% for the first time in the history of the BDSI

 This may also partly be due to the reduction in garnishee orders over the last few years as well as consumers becoming more wary of micro loans. Of course, higher salaries must also form part of the equation.

 “The most interesting aspect this month, however, is that the number of people who received between R10 000 and R25 000 was the biggest single grouping of people in the BDSI,” says Belrose.

 “The data shows that just over 1.1 million employees received a disposable salary between R10 000 and R25 000 per month, which is just a touch more than the 1.08 million who received between R4 000 and R10 000 per month.

” This trend is likely to continue in the future as the percentage of those getting more than R10 000 in their bank account now accounts for 46.2% of the total sample of the BDSI. This is up from 38.9% of employees taking home R10 000 or more in October 2013. 

The number of people earning more than R10 000 increased by 15.9% while the top category of those earning between R50 000 and R100 000 saw the number of people increase by 25.7%

 The two lower categories saw a decline in number of earners. The fastest decline – being an absolute decline of 16.2% – is for those earning less than R4 000 in take home pay. Those taking home between R4 000 and R10 000 declined by 3% over the last year. 

High average salaries for those with formal jobs

 “With most of the strikes now behind us, the increases in the formal sector are once again quite astounding,” says Mike Schüssler, Chief Economist at economists dotcoza.

 The average salary being banked is R12 542 per month in the South African formal sector payments system. This is the sixth month in which the average disposable salary is above R12 000 per month.

 He estimates that there were about 2 907 725 account holders receiving formal salary payments through BankservAfrica in October.

 According to Schüssler, we may experience better than expected retail sales this Christmas season if salary increases remain as they have been in the last few months

 Contact Wendy Fourie for more information: WendyF@bankservafrica.com or (011) 497 4119.

 Note to the editor:

 Take home or disposable salary is the amount paid via the BankservAfrica system that indicates it is a salary payment and would already have taxes, UIF, Pension and medical insurance deducted. Other deductions according to payment firms and payment offices are Garnishee orders, up-front payments and deductions by some lenders such as the old Iscor Employee fund. Other deductions are much smaller in numbers but can from time to time be big amounts such as SARS penalties. We estimate weekly salaries to be about 9,5% of the total people or about 30% of actual payments. 

BDSI Report November 2014

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November 27, 2014

Eskom formalises voluntary retrenchments

Large-scale retrenchments unlikely - may be too costly. Eskom formalised a process of offering employees voluntary severance packages two weeks ago. The applications will however be very carefully assessed to ensure Eskom retains the necessary skills and taking into account the short-term costs related to it, says Eskom spokesperson Andrew Etzinger

Link: Moneyweb

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November 26, 2014

SA's GDP rebounds in Q3

South Africa’s economy grew 1.4% in the third quarter after platinum mines restarted production following a five-month strike

Growth improved from an annualised revised 0.5% in the second quarter and a revised 1.6% contraction in the first three months, the statistics office said in a report released today in Pretoria, the capital. The median estimate of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for 1.5% quarterly growth. The economy expanded 1.4% from a year earlier

Link: Moneyweb

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November 24, 2014

Petrol price drop could have sting in its tail

Cape Town - The expected fall in the petrol price in December will certainly be good news for SA, but there is a sting in the tail, economist Dawie Roodt of the Efficient Group told Fin24 on Friday. "The lower international price of oil is partly reflecting a weak global economy. Unfortunately a weak global economy also pushes other commodity prices down - commodities of which SA is a major exporter," explained Roodt.

Link: Fin24

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November 24, 2014

Alec Hogg: “Permanently lower” oil price threatens Nigerian growth – and SA’s Shale Gale

In this morning’s Rational Perspective, Alec Hogg considers the impact of the lower crude price on economic growth in oil-export dependent Africa and South Africa’s promised Shale Gale in the Karoo, already under threat through heavy handed intervention by politicians and the alternative of cheap gas from neighbouring Mozambique. Overnight news from China, which has the biggest shale gas reserves on earth, add to the sombre mood.

Link: Biznews

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November 20, 2014

Sarb should give stern warning - economist

Cape Town - The SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) should bide its time and leave its repo rate unchanged at the conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, according to Sanlam Investments economist Arthur Kamp. Merely a stern warning that it stands ready if unfolding events and incoming data warrant action should suffice for now, in Kamp's view. "All in all, a combination of slowing inflation (and lower inflation forecasts), soft private sector credit extension and weak domestic demand growth should be sufficient to convince the Reserve Bank that this is not the time to hike its repo rate," said Kamp.

Link: Fin24

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November 20, 2014

SA's turbulent new political transition begins

Daniel Silke 20 November 2014 Daniel Silke writes that the country is at a critical, and future defining, juncture There are two ways of looking at the state of South Africa as 2014 nears its tumultuous end. The usual glass-half-empty option is to condemn the country to a continued free-fall both economically and politically on the assumption that the ruling elite simply cannot change their own bad habits, carefully nurtured and applied over the past 20 years.

Link: politicsweb

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November 20, 2014

KwaZulu-Natal Business Barometer August 2014

The KwaZulu-Natal economy continues to struggle as confidence is low due to uncertainty inflation and higher interest rates. The latest KwaZulu-Natal barometer, as compiled by Mike Schüssler of Economists.co.za, declined 3.2% year-on-year, the biggest decline in 12 months. Quarter-on-quarter the barometer was down 4.4% and month-on-month it was down 1.8%. The barometer was also 4.9% lower than three years ago as the overall South African economy has weakened.

Kwazulu-Natal Business Barometer August 2014

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November 19, 2014

October inflation flat at 5.9%

Johannesburg - Headline consumer inflation was at 5.9% year-on-year in October, in line with market expectations and unchanged from September, data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed on Wednesday. On a month-on-month basis CPI was at 0.2%, also matching analysts' forecasts, from 0.0% in September. Core inflation, which excludes the prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, petrol and energy, edged up slightly to 5.7% year-on-year, from 5.6%, but slowed to 0.3% on a month-on-month basis, from 0.4% in September.

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November 18, 2014

SA has hard choices about commodities - economist

Johannesburg - Expect South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Russia to have to make hard choices if commodity prices stay at current levels or go lower, warned Mike Schüssler, chief economist of economists.co.za, in a report for TreasuryOne. All commodity producers will now have to get reforms back on track as swelling budget deficits will come into play, in his view. "Commodities are a gift that does not keep on giving and this could be the best lesson for most commodity producers to learn," said Schüssler.

Link: Fin24

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