What we do not do:
We do not offer daily currency or yield forecasts. Our data and thoughts are longer term in nature and more often than not we will get currencies
wrong. We look at the underlying trends that underpin long term movements.
We do not get every forecast right. We aim to get the major events and trends or directions right. In 2010 the best US forecasters of the year, got
86% of their forecasts right and over a two year period they got 82% of their forecasts right.* Over the decade the best forecaster had a
margin of error of just less than 33% which, while sounding big is actually quite extraordinary low over such a length of time. Even the best
forecasts are not good enough which we realise while we provide the numbers for your next budget. Strategic themes rather than precise numbers are
more important in making real world decisions.
We do not just repeat everything that is in the daily papers or media. Generally the really big themes are covered in bits and pieces while
reading, insight and experience help bring them to the fore.
We do not puff up nice stuff to get people motivated. We inform with real insightful facts and yes often negative facts actually do motivate people
as the good stands out better with the truth.
We do not give investment tips. We look at real economic trends and make use of that to give financial clients a better insight.
We often have to smooth some statistics but we do not get them to confess. Some data is not always a nice data set and may jump around a bit. We
will try to get the real trend but not to suit a client or even our own view.
* Average margin of error in forecasts for 13 indicators, subtracted from 100. For monthly indicators, estimates were compiled over two
years; for GDP, 12 quarters of forecasts were collected. Ranking is as of Sept. 30 2010. Source: Bloomberg (five of the top ten were independent,
three worked for investment banks, one for an asset manager and one was a foreign government owned agency)
Over the last ten years the same has played out in SA. Four winners were independent, two were academics, two were in house economists for a real
economy companies and two were in house financial sector economists.